War is SO Predictable…
August 14th, 2008 by HeatherThere is a question I often get when I’m out talking about war prevention in Macedonia. It goes something like this: “Sure, war was prevented this one time, but how can we prevent war consistently, when we never know when the next one is going to break out?”
I’ll concede, it’s true that some elements of war are unpredictable. There are crises, like natural disasters, conflicts in neighboring lands, or sudden transfers of population, which can come out of nowhere (or at least seem to) and push a country over the brink to war.
However, as we show in Macedonia: What Does it Take to Stop a War?, the most important question is not whether people or states will be confronted with unexpected shocks such as these. It is whether they are prepared to handle those shocks peacefully.
That’s why I spent so much time in Macedonia talking to people who were working to reform the country’s police force and courts to make them more responsive, and its education system and government to make them more inclusive and less corrupt. These are the very systems that can make or break the country’s ability to handle conflict peacefully.
Along the same lines, I want to bring your attention to a fantastic resource that has come out recenty, which seeks to assess which states are most lacking in what it takes to weather conflict non-violently. It’s the annual Failed States Index!
This project, conducted jointly by Foreign Policy Magazine (a favorite of mine) and the Fund for Peace, measures the ability of a state to keep peace by looking at indicators like corruption, legitimacy of the government in the eyes of its citizenry, and institutionalized discrimination.
In other words, it’s a map that shows which states are the most likely to collapse into war and violence, should they be faced with an unexpected shock.
Of course, the question remains whether this study, which is part of a larger system we call “early warning” will also translate into “early action” on the part of what we call the International Community. Closing this gap has proved problematic, for a number of reasons that I go into in the book, and which I’m happy to talk about in future entries.
But for now, have a look at the Failed States Index yourself. I think you’ll come to agree. War is SO predictable!
(Stay Tuned.)
















